Cross-Party Commission for Social Care Funding

Security in later life — Mixed picture

moderate · moderate confidence

This policy creates a commission to find a long-term funding fix for social care, which is genuinely underfunded and leaving many older people without care. But commissions have repeatedly failed to deliver reform, and any real improvements are years away at best.

The evidence

• The policy proposes a cross-party commission to forge a long-term agreement on sustainable social care funding, addressing the local authority funding crisis. — libdems.org.uk (manifesto) — “Establish a cross-party commission to forge a long-term agreement on sustainable funding for social care, addressing the funding crisis facing local authorities.”
• The adult social care system is widely seen as a threadbare safety net, with publicly funded support often limited to those with the highest needs and lowest means. — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “The adult social care system in England is widely considered a "threadbare safety net"”
• In 2023/24, local authorities received over two million requests for support but only about 42% resulted in any service, with 31% receiving nothing. — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “local authorities received over two million requests for support from new clients, but only about 42% of these requests resulted in some form of service, with 31% receiving nothing”
• Local authorities spent £23.3 billion on adult social care in 2023/24, making it the biggest area of council spending after education. — commonslibrary.parliament.uk (government) — “local authorities in England spent £23.3 billion on adult social care in 2023/24, making it the biggest area of council spending after education”
• 81% of councils were projected to overspend their adult social care budget in 2024/25, up from 72% the year before. — publications.parliament.uk (government) — “In 2024/25, 81% of councils were projected to overspend their adult social care budget, up from 72% in 2023/24”
• The LGA estimated a funding gap in local government of over £20 billion over the next four years, the vast majority from social care. — publications.parliament.uk (government) — “The Local Government Association (LGA) estimated a funding gap in local government of over £20 billion over the next four years, with the "vast majority" stemming from adult and children's social care”
• The Health Foundation estimates an additional £9.1 billion could be needed by 2034/35 just to meet demand growth from an ageing population. — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “The Health Foundation estimates that to merely meet the expected growth in demand from an ageing population, an additional £9.1 billion could be needed by 2034/35”
• The IFS projects that public spending on adult social care would need to increase by 3.1% per year in real terms over the next decade just to meet demand pressures. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “They project that UK-wide public spending on adult social care would need to increase by 3.1% per year in real terms over the next decade just to meet demand pressures”
• A cross-party approach could overcome decades of political gridlock and provide the sector with much-needed certainty. — gov.uk (media) — “A cross-party approach could overcome decades of political gridlock, offering a more stable and sustainable funding model less susceptible to changes in government”
• Previous reform attempts have failed due to political point-scoring, with past proposals labelled 'death tax' (2010) and 'dementia tax' (2017). — nuffieldtrust.org.uk (institutional) — “previous attempts at reform have failed due to political point-scoring and public misunderstanding, such as the "death tax" label in 2010 and "dementia tax" in 2017”
• Critics warn that another commission could kick much-needed reforms into the long grass, and social care reform has a long history of delay dating back nearly 30 years. — nuffieldtrust.org.uk (institutional) — “social care reform is "no stranger to the long grass," dating back to the Sutherland Commission almost 30 years ago”
• The commission's final recommendations are not expected until 2028, meaning no concrete improvements for years. — theguardian.com (media) — “The Casey Commission's final recommendations are not expected until 2028”

Biggest unknown: Whether this commission can achieve genuine cross-party consensus where previous attempts have failed, and whether it will produce binding action rather than further delay.

Our reading: Social care for older people is in documented, severe distress: the majority of councils are overspending budgets, a third of new requests for care result in nothing, and demand is projected to outpace funding by billions within a decade. The status quo demonstrably worsens security in later life — so any credible path to reform is a positive signal for O8. A cross-party commission is the right structural response to a problem that has resisted single-party solutions: institutional bodies like the King's Fund and Nuffield Trust identify 'air cover' from broad consensus as necessary for the politically painful funding decisions ahead. That is a genuine potential improvement. However, the improvement is conditional and distant. The commission's recommendations are not expected until 2028, meaning no material change for years. The history of reform is one of repeated failure — two previous efforts collapsed under political labels. 76% of the public are unaware of even the current government's care commitments, making consensus harder to sustain. The commission itself produces no funding — it only creates conditions for a future decision. In the meantime, councils continue to overspend and unmet need continues to grow. The verdict is therefore 'mixed': the policy opens a credible route to the structural reform O8 desperately needs, but provides nothing concrete now, and carries a well-evidenced risk of becoming another chapter in a 30-year history of delay. The magnitude is moderate because the potential upside — a durable cross-party settlement — would be genuinely significant for pensioners and care users, but the near-term effect on O8 is negligible.