Improve school funding, teacher pay, and infrastructure
Green · what the evidence says
An independent, source-checked look at Green’s policy “Improve school funding, teacher pay, and infrastructure” — what it would actually do across the things that affect your life. Every claim below quotes the source behind it. How this works.
Public finances & the next generation — Mixed picture
moderate · moderate confidence
This policy proposes significant new spending with no stated funding source, which would worsen the near-term debt path; however, some elements — particularly SEND mainstream investment and school rebuilding — could reduce larger future liabilities, making the long-run picture genuinely uncertain.
The evidence
- The policy proposes £8bn for schools including £2bn teacher pay, £2.5bn/year for RAAC remediation, and £5bn for SEND provision, with no stated funding mechanism. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Advocate for an £8bn investment in schools, including £2bn for a teacher pay uplift, and invest £2.5bn a year to tackle the RAAC concrete scandal”
- The core schools budget is already around £65bn in 2025-26, so £8bn represents a substantial addition with no offset identified. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “The core schools budget (for pupils aged 5-16) is projected to be around £65 billion in 2025-26.”
- The OBR already forecasts a £6bn gap between SEND funding and spending by 2028-29, meaning the underlying SEND liability is growing regardless of new investment. — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “The OBR forecasts a £6 billion gap between expected funding and spending on SEND by 2028-29.”
- Cumulative high-needs deficits for local authorities are projected to reach £14bn by 2028, representing a large unfunded liability on the public balance sheet. — tes.com (media) — “Cumulative high-needs deficits for local authorities are projected to reach £14 billion by 2028.”
- The £5bn SEND investment in mainstream schools could reduce reliance on more expensive special school placements, potentially yielding long-run savings. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “This proposed £5 billion would significantly enhance the capacity of mainstream schools to provide inclusive education, potentially reducing reliance on more expensive special school placements”
- Increased investment in local, accessible SEND provision could help reduce the soaring transport costs currently deemed financially unsustainable. — specialneedsjungle.com (media) — “increased investment in local, accessible provision could help reduce these soaring transport costs”
- OBR cautions that SEND reforms could risk increasing spending in the short term, not reducing it. — tes.com (media) — “The OBR also cautions that SEND reforms could risk increasing spending in the short term.”
- The DfE had spent only £211m on RAAC mitigation to date, while 119 schools require rebuilding, indicating a large unmet capital liability. — publications.parliament.uk (government) — “As of February 2026, the DfE had spent £211 million on RAAC mitigation and remediation to date.”
- MPs described the RAAC crisis as symptomatic of a chronic capital investment deficit, suggesting the school estate represents a growing liability. — publications.parliament.uk (government) — “MPs have noted that the RAAC crisis is "symptomatic of a chronic capital investment deficit"”
Biggest unknown: Whether any of this spending would be funded by taxation or reallocation, or would add net to borrowing, is entirely unspecified in the policy text.
Our reading: For O12 the central question is whether new spending is funded, and whether it finances consumption or productive investment. On funding: the policy text uses 'advocate for' and 'invest' with no stated revenue source, tax offset, or reallocation. At £8bn upfront plus £2.5bn/year ongoing, this represents a substantial net addition to public spending — worsening the near-term debt path if it is new borrowing or unidentified revenue. The teacher pay element (£2bn) is recurrent and consumption-like; it addresses a real recruitment crisis but generates no future fiscal return that would offset its cost. On the capital side, the picture is more genuinely mixed. The RAAC remediation (£2.5bn/year) addresses a concrete, growing liability: 119 schools require rebuilding and the DfE has spent only £211m so far. Deferring this investment does not eliminate the cost — it defers and likely enlarges it. Similarly, the £5bn SEND investment targets mainstream schools; IFS evidence suggests this could reduce reliance on expensive special school placements, while accessible local provision could reduce soaring transport costs. Against this, the OBR — as projected — cautions that SEND reforms risk increasing spending in the short term, and the underlying SEND deficit is already projected at £6bn by 2028-29, meaning £5bn may not close the structural gap. Net verdict: the near-term fiscal effect is a clear worsening (unfunded spending addition); the long-term effect is genuinely mixed — capital investment in buildings and SEND infrastructure has a plausible deficit-reducing pathway, but the OBR's scepticism about short-term SEND savings is credible and cited. 'Mixed/moderate/long-term' captures both signals honestly.
Good work & fair pay — Little effect
minor · low confidence
The policy calls for a £2bn teacher pay uplift that would, if delivered, help reverse years of real-terms pay decline for teachers — but the wording is 'advocate for', not a firm commitment, so there is no guaranteed mechanism to deliver it. Even the more concrete capital spending is mainly about buildings and pupil support rather than worker pay or conditions.
The evidence
- The policy advocates for a £2bn teacher pay uplift as part of a broader £8bn schools investment package. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Advocate for an £8bn investment in schools, including £2bn for a teacher pay uplift”
- Median classroom teacher pay in England was £48,892 in 2024/25. — commonslibrary.parliament.uk (government) — “Average (median) classroom teacher pay in England was £48,892 in 2024/25.”
- Real-terms teacher pay fell 10.4% between 2010/11 and 2022/23, recovering only partially since. — commonslibrary.parliament.uk (government) — “Real-terms teacher pay saw a significant decline of 10.4% between 2010/11 and 2022/23, though it has since risen by 5% from 2022/23 to 2024/25.”
- Existing school budgets in 2025-26 are only sufficient to fund a 2% pay rise, below the 3.6% cost increase driven by teacher pay. — publicsectorexecutive.com (media) — “in 2025-26, schools could only afford a 2% pay rise within existing budgets, despite estimated cost increases of 3.6% driven by pay”
- Postgraduate teacher recruitment was 38% below target in 2023/24, with secondary recruitment 50% below target. — teachers-uk.co.uk (media) — “postgraduate teacher recruitment was 38% below target nationally, with secondary trainee teacher recruitment falling 50% below target”
- 9% of teachers left the state sector in 2023/24, with 30–33% leaving within the first five years. — commonslibrary.parliament.uk (government) — “9% of teachers left the state sector in 2023/24, and between 30% and 33% leave within their first five years of teaching”
- The £5bn SEND investment is projected by IFS to enhance mainstream school capacity and potentially reduce reliance on expensive special placements, which could sustain teaching jobs in mainstream settings. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “This proposed £5 billion would significantly enhance the capacity of mainstream schools to provide inclusive education, potentially reducing reliance on more expensive special school placements”
Biggest unknown: Whether 'advocate for' translates into a legally or fiscally committed instrument; without that, the pay uplift has no delivery mechanism and cannot be scored as a real improvement.
Our reading: O4 asks whether workers — here, primarily teachers — can earn a decent, secure living. The evidence shows a clear structural problem: real pay fell sharply over more than a decade (E8), recruitment is well below target (E9), and exit rates are high (E10). A committed £2bn teacher pay uplift would address a genuine gap — current school budgets cannot fund even inflation-level pay rises (E12). However, the policy's own language is 'advocate for', not 'commit to' or 'invest'. Under the soft-verb rule, a pledged advocacy position with no confirmed budget instrument, statutory duty, or quantified delivery timeline cannot be scored as an improvement: the mechanism does not yet exist. The RAAC capital spending and SEND investment use marginally stronger language ('invest'), but these primarily affect buildings and pupil support; while SEND training for teachers creates some job quality and skills uplift, it is secondary to pay as an O4 indicator. The IFS projection on SEND (E32) is contingent and does not directly translate to improved pay or security for individual workers. The size of the pay funding gap is real and the proposed sum is plausibly material (£2bn against a £65bn schools budget per E2), but 'improves/minor' requires a delivered mechanism, which advocacy alone does not supply. Verdict is negligible with low confidence, acknowledging that if the advocacy translated into a firm commitment the verdict would shift to improves/moderate.
Education & opportunity — Helps
moderate · moderate confidence
This policy proposes significant new money for school buildings, teacher pay, and SEND support — all areas with documented shortfalls — which should improve educational opportunity if delivered. The main caveat is that the sums, while large, may not fully close existing gaps, and delivery risk is high.
The evidence
- The policy proposes £8bn for schools, including £2bn for teacher pay uplift — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Advocate for an £8bn investment in schools, including £2bn for a teacher pay uplift”
- The policy proposes £2.5bn a year to tackle RAAC and maintain school buildings — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “invest £2.5bn a year to tackle the RAAC concrete scandal and ensure school buildings are safe and well-maintained”
- The policy proposes £5bn for SEND provision in mainstream schools, covering buildings, trained teachers, transport, and support — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “investing £5bn in special needs (SEND) provision within mainstream schools to ensure accessible buildings, specially trained teachers, and proper support for SEND students, including transport”
- Current school funding per pupil is not expected to cover the 3.6% rise in school costs in 2025-26, with only 2.8% cash-terms increase budgeted — publicsectorexecutive.com (media) — “mainstream school funding per pupil in England for 2025-26 (2.8% in cash terms) is not expected to cover the anticipated 3.6% rise in school costs, primarily driven by teacher pay increases”
- Real-terms teacher pay fell 10.4% between 2010/11 and 2022/23 and has only partially recovered — commonslibrary.parliament.uk (government) — “Real-terms teacher pay saw a significant decline of 10.4% between 2010/11 and 2022/23, though it has since risen by 5% from 2022/23 to 2024/25”
- Teacher recruitment is severely below target — postgraduate recruitment was 38% below target in 2023/24 — teachers-uk.co.uk (media) — “In 2023/24, postgraduate teacher recruitment was 38% below target nationally, with secondary trainee teacher recruitment falling 50% below target”
- 9% of teachers left the state sector in 2023/24 and 30–33% leave within their first five years — commonslibrary.parliament.uk (government) — “9% of teachers left the state sector in 2023/24, and between 30% and 33% leave within their first five years of teaching”
- RAAC had been permanently removed from only 62 schools and colleges as of October 2025, with 119 requiring rebuilds or refurbishment — theguardian.com (media) — “RAAC had been permanently removed from 62 schools and colleges”
- MPs have noted the RAAC crisis is symptomatic of chronic capital underinvestment that harms pupil learning — publications.parliament.uk (government) — “the RAAC crisis is "symptomatic of a chronic capital investment deficit" and that the condition of school buildings profoundly impacts pupil learning”
- High-needs SEND spending was £11.8bn in 2024, up from £7.5bn in 2016, under severe pressure — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “High-needs spending for SEND was £11.8 billion in 2024 (in 2025-26 prices), an increase from £7.5 billion in 2016, absorbing over half of the total rise in school funding during that period”
- The number of children with EHCPs has more than doubled to 639,000 in under a decade — ft.com (media) — “The number of children with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) has more than doubled to 639,000 in less than a decade”
- The OBR forecasts a £6bn gap between expected SEND funding and spending by 2028-29 — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “The OBR forecasts a £6 billion gap between expected funding and spending on SEND by 2028-29”
- The proposed £5bn SEND investment could significantly enhance mainstream school capacity and reduce reliance on expensive special school placements — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “This proposed £5 billion would significantly enhance the capacity of mainstream schools to provide inclusive education, potentially reducing reliance on more expensive special school placements and addressing the postcod…”
- SEND reforms risk increasing spending in the short term according to the OBR — tes.com (media) — “The OBR also cautions that SEND reforms could risk increasing spending in the short term”
Biggest unknown: Whether the proposed investment is additional to current government commitments or overlapping, and whether SEND reforms can genuinely bend the cost curve rather than simply adding to an already-projected £6 billion funding gap.
Our reading: All three pillars of this policy — teacher pay, school buildings, and SEND — address areas where the evidence shows documented, material shortfalls. On teacher pay: real-terms pay is still well below its 2010/11 level, recruitment is dramatically below target, and retention is poor. A £2bn uplift would address a known pressure — schools are already unable to fund even a 2% rise within existing budgets, let alone the 3.6% cost increase. Higher pay has a credible mechanism to improve recruitment and retention, which directly affects school quality and opportunity for pupils. On buildings: the RAAC crisis is ongoing. Only 62 schools have had RAAC permanently removed, 119 need rebuilds, and the problem has been characterised as symptomatic of chronic underinvestment that harms learning. £2.5bn per year is a large step-up from the £211m spent to date, and would plausibly accelerate remediation and broader maintenance. On SEND: the system faces an OBR-projected £6bn funding gap by 2028-29, cumulative LA deficits heading toward £14bn, and more than double the number of EHCPs than a decade ago. The £5bn proposal targets mainstream inclusion — trained teachers, accessible buildings, and transport — which the IFS projects could reduce reliance on costlier specialist placements. The main risks are: (1) the £5bn SEND figure must be set against an already-projected £6bn structural gap — it narrows but does not close it; (2) the OBR warns SEND reforms can increase short-term costs; (3) teacher pay uplifts only improve outcomes if sustained, and unions have historically rejected offers as insufficient; (4) delivery capacity for rapid school rebuilding at scale is uncertain. On balance, the policy addresses the right pressure points with credible mechanisms. The direction is clearly positive for O7, but the magnitude is moderate rather than major because the funding, while large, does not fully close documented gaps and delivery risk is real.
Equal treatment & democratic rights — Helps
moderate · moderate confidence
The £5bn promised for SEND provision in mainstream schools — accessible buildings, trained teachers, and transport — would improve equal treatment for disabled pupils, a group facing serious and documented gaps in access and support. Whether the funding is sufficient to close the deficit, and how it is delivered, determines how large the gain really is.
The evidence
- The policy commits £5bn to SEND provision in mainstream schools, covering accessible buildings, specially trained teachers, proper support, and transport. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “investing £5bn in special needs (SEND) provision within mainstream schools to ensure accessible buildings, specially trained teachers, and proper support for SEND students, including transport”
- The SEND system in England is under unprecedented pressure, with the number of children with EHCPs more than doubling to 639,000 in less than a decade. — ft.com (media) — “The number of children with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) has more than doubled to 639,000 in less than a decade”
- High-needs SEND spending reached £11.8bn in 2024, up from £7.5bn in 2016, absorbing over half of total school funding growth. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “High-needs spending for SEND was £11.8 billion in 2024 (in 2025-26 prices), an increase from £7.5 billion in 2016, absorbing over half of the total rise in school funding during that period”
- The OBR forecasts a £6bn gap between expected funding and SEND spending by 2028-29. — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “The OBR forecasts a £6 billion gap between expected funding and spending on SEND by 2028-29”
- SEND transport alone cost £2.6bn in 2024/25, with the average cost per SEND pupil over five times that of mainstream transport, and the system deemed financially unsustainable by parliamentary committees. — specialneedsjungle.com (media) — “House of Commons Public Accounts Committee has reported that SEND transport is "financially unsustainable," and increased investment in local, accessible provision could help reduce these soaring transport costs”
- The proposed £5bn could significantly enhance mainstream schools' capacity for inclusive education, potentially reducing reliance on costly special school placements and addressing the postcode lottery in provision. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “This proposed £5 billion would significantly enhance the capacity of mainstream schools to provide inclusive education, potentially reducing reliance on more expensive special school placements and addressing the postcod…”
- The OBR cautions that SEND reforms could risk increasing spending in the short term, and has not accepted government assurances that planned reforms will deliver savings. — tes.com (media) — “The OBR also cautions that SEND reforms could risk increasing spending in the short term”
Biggest unknown: Whether £5bn is enough given the OBR-projected £6bn+ SEND funding gap by 2028-29, and whether mainstream inclusion reforms reduce or inadvertently increase costs and waiting times for the most complex pupils.
Our reading: O9 is concerned with equal treatment and minority protections. The most directly relevant element of this policy is the £5bn SEND commitment. Disabled pupils in England represent a large and growing group — 639,000 EHCPs, a number that has more than doubled in a decade — facing documented inequality in access to suitable mainstream education and transport. The existing funding gap (OBR: £6bn by 2028-29) and the postcode lottery in provision mean many disabled children currently receive unequal access to education. The stated investment in accessible buildings, trained teachers, support, and transport is a textbook equal-treatment measure: it targets the structural barriers that prevent disabled pupils from accessing mainstream schooling on equal terms with non-disabled peers. The projected evidence (E32) suggests the scale of investment could materially reduce reliance on expensive out-of-area special placements, directly tackling geographic inequality in access. The transport commitment addresses a specific documented inequality (E33), where costs are deemed 'financially unsustainable' and fall disproportionately on SEND families. Counterfactual: absent this policy, the OBR projects the gap widens further, worsening unequal access. The main caveat is that £5bn may not close the full gap (OBR projects £6bn+ shortfall), and the OBR warns short-term reform costs could rise. If the funding proves insufficient or reforms are poorly designed, the improvement in equal treatment would be partial. The teacher pay and RAAC elements of the policy have no direct O9 effect beyond their indirect contribution to school quality, which is out of scope here. On balance, the SEND commitment is a genuine, mechanism-specific investment in equal treatment for a minority group with measurable current disadvantage, earning a moderate 'improves' verdict.