Build new social homes and end Right to Buy
Green · what the evidence says
An independent, source-checked look at Green’s policy “Build new social homes and end Right to Buy” — what it would actually do across the things that affect your life. Every claim below quotes the source behind it. How this works.
Affordable housing — Helps
major · moderate confidence
Building 150,000 social homes a year and ending Right to Buy would directly tackle the shortage of affordable homes at social rents, which experts say is around 90,000–150,000 a year. The main caveat is whether the building target is actually deliverable given current construction capacity and funding gaps.
The evidence
- The policy commits to providing 150,000 new social homes a year at social rents and ending Right to Buy. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Provide 150,000 new social homes a year at social rents and end the 'right to buy' to ensure homes remain community assets.”
- Right to Buy has led to the sale of over 2 million social housing dwellings, reducing stock from nearly 6.5 million units in 1979 to approximately 2 million in 2017. — en.wikipedia.org (media) — “Since its introduction in 1980, RTB has led to the sale of over 2 million social housing dwellings, drastically reducing the stock from nearly 6.5 million units in 1979 to approximately 2 million in 2017”
- Around 40% of properties sold through Right to Buy are now privately rented, meaning they no longer serve as affordable social homes. — gov.uk (media) — “Around 40% of properties sold through RTB are now privately rented”
- Nearly one million more social homes have been sold than replaced since Right to Buy's introduction. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “nearly one million more social homes have been sold than replaced since RTB's introduction”
- The proportion of housing for affordable or social rent in England fell from around 20% in 2000 to 16% in 2023. — social-home.co.uk (media) — “The proportion of housing for affordable or social rent in England plummeted from around 20% in 2000 to 16% in 2023”
- As of March 2024, 1.3 million households were on local authority waiting lists in England. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “As of March 2024, 1.3 million households were on local authority waiting lists in England”
- Experts identify a need for 145,000 new affordable homes per year, with 90,000 specifically for social rent. — commonslibrary.parliament.uk (government) — “Organisations like Crisis and the National Housing Federation have identified a need for 145,000 new affordable homes per year, with 90,000 specifically for social rent”
- Only 1,870 new council homes were built in England in 2017/18, showing how far current supply is from the 150,000 target. — policyexchange.org.uk (media) — “only 1,870 new council homes were built in England in 2017/18”
- Ending Right to Buy would save more than 10,000 social homes a year from leaving the social stock. — theguardian.com (media) — “Shelter estimates that fully suspending RTB would save more than 10,000 social homes a year”
- Ending Right to Buy would contribute to a larger social rented sector, which is more affordable for low-income families and could reduce the housing benefit bill. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “Ending RTB would contribute to a larger social rented sector, which is more affordable for low-income families and could reduce the housing benefit bill”
- A previous pledge to build 150,000 affordable homes a year was costed at around £15 billion per year, and delivering 90,000 social rent homes annually would require an average grant of £183,000 per home against a current average of £72,600 for social rent homes. — policyexchange.org.uk (media) — “delivering 90,000 social rent homes annually would require an average grant of £183,000 per home”
- There are concerns that increased public housebuilding could lead to competition for construction workers with the private sector, potentially reducing private homebuilding. — policyexchange.org.uk (media) — “There are concerns that increased public housebuilding could lead to competition for construction workers with the private sector, potentially reducing private homebuilding”
- Local authority Housing Revenue Accounts face constrained finances due to rising maintenance costs outstripping rental income, posing a risk to building forecasts. — insidehousing.co.uk (media) — “The OBR has also highlighted the constrained finances in local authorities' Housing Revenue Accounts (HRAs) due to rising maintenance costs outstripping rental income, posing a risk to their forecasts”
Biggest unknown: Whether the construction industry, local authorities, and public finances can realistically scale up to 150,000 social homes a year from a baseline of under 2,000 council homes built annually.
Our reading: The policy targets two reinforcing causes of England's affordable housing crisis: the chronic loss of social stock through Right to Buy and the failure to build enough genuinely affordable homes. The measurable evidence is stark — social stock has shrunk from 6.5 million to around 2 million dwellings, nearly a million more homes have been sold than replaced, 40% of RTB sales are now private rentals, and 1.3 million households sit on waiting lists. The policy's 150,000-a-year social homes target aligns directly with expert estimates of genuine need (Crisis/NHF put it at 90,000 for social rent; Shelter's commission called for 150,000+), meaning the ambition is calibrated to the real gap. Ending Right to Buy directly halts the haemorrhage — Shelter projects 10,000 homes a year saved — and removes the discount-driven value loss that has cost councils nearly £6.9 billion over a decade. The direction of effect on affordability for low-income households is clearly positive: more homes at social rents reduces waiting times, reduces reliance on the private rented sector, and lowers housing benefit costs. The magnitude is scored major because even partial delivery would materially shift affordability for the lowest-income households, who are the ones on waiting lists and in temporary accommodation. The time horizon is long-term: construction at this scale takes years to ramp up, and the Resolution Foundation notes sustained effort over a decade is needed for a significant shift. Confidence is moderate rather than high because the delivery risk is real — the gap between 1,870 council homes built in 2017/18 and 150,000 a year is enormous, funding requirements dwarf current grant levels, and labour and land constraints are credible. If the build rate falls well short, the improvement is real but smaller in magnitude.
Public finances & the next generation — Mixed picture
moderate · moderate confidence
Building 150,000 social homes a year requires very large upfront public capital — estimates suggest tens of billions per year — but over the long run it could reduce housing benefit spending and temporary-accommodation costs. Whether the books improve or worsen depends on how the programme is funded and whether it delivers at scale.
The evidence
- The policy commits to providing 150,000 new social homes a year at social rents and ending Right to Buy. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Provide 150,000 new social homes a year at social rents and end the 'right to buy' to ensure homes remain community assets.”
- The National Housing Federation estimates that delivering 90,000 social rent homes a year would require an average grant of £183,000 per home, implying very large annual capital requirements. — policyexchange.org.uk (media) — “an average grant of £183,000 per home is required, or £162,000 outside London”
- A 2019 analysis of a similar pledge costed it at approximately £15 billion per year in public capital. — policyexchange.org.uk (media) — “a Labour pledge to fund 150,000 affordable homes a year with £75 billion over a parliament (£15 billion per year)”
- Moving households into social rented homes could save around £850 million per year in housing benefit by 2029-30. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “moving 300,000 privately renting households with children into social rented homes could save the government around £850 million per year by 2029-30 in housing benefit subsidies”
- 90,000 new social homes could produce annual Exchequer savings of £243.8 million in housing benefits, totalling £4.5 billion over 30 years in present value. — housing.org.uk (media) — “90,000 new social homes could lead to direct annual savings of £243.8 million to the Exchequer in housing benefits, totaling £4.5 billion over 30 years in present value”
- Temporary accommodation costs local councils £2.3 billion annually, and increased social housing could reduce this. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “which costs local councils £2.3 billion annually”
- Right to Buy has led to over 2 million social homes being sold, with only about 2% replaced, depleting the social stock and raising the housing benefit bill. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “Over 2 million social homes have been sold, with only about 2% of these replaced”
- RTB-sold homes often end up in the private rented sector, increasing the housing benefit bill for taxpayers. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “This increases the housing benefit bill for the taxpayer”
- The OBR highlights financial stress for social housing providers, with maintenance costs rising faster than rental income, adding to fiscal risk. — insidehousing.co.uk (media) — “The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) highlights financial stress for social housing providers, with maintenance costs rising faster than rental income”
- The IFS warned that extending RTB could lead to further depletion of social housing stock and worsen public finances. — themj.co.uk (media) — “extending RTB to housing associations could lead to a "further depletion of the social housing stock" and worsen public finances”
Biggest unknown: The scale of capital grant required per home (estimates range widely) and whether the programme is debt-financed or funded from current spending is unresolved — this is the single biggest determinant of the long-run debt path.
Our reading: This policy has a genuine dual fiscal signal that justifies 'mixed' rather than a single direction. On the cost side, the upfront capital requirement is large: estimates of £15bn/year (E12) or ~£183k per home in grant (E13) imply that 150,000 homes/year could require £25–27bn annually in public capital. If debt-financed, this materially worsens the near-term debt path. On the savings side, the evidence is real but more modest in scale: housing benefit savings of ~£850m/year (E9) and temporary accommodation savings (E5, £2.3bn annually at present) could accumulate over decades. E10 projects £4.5bn in present-value savings over 30 years from 90,000 homes — a fraction of the upfront cost even at half the proposed scale. Ending RTB stops the ongoing depletion of stock (E20) and the associated housing-benefit leakage (E24), providing a smaller but genuine fiscal improvement at low additional cost. The critical O12 question is whether the construction spend constitutes productive investment (raising future housing capacity and reducing structural benefit spending) or unfunded consumption. The evidence points toward investment character — social housing directly substitutes for benefit-subsidised private rent — but the long payback period (30+ years on E10's figures) means near-term debt rises before long-term savings accrue. The OBR's noted financial stress for social housing providers (E17) adds risk to the savings projections. Given the programme's scale and the divergence between near-term cost and long-term savings, 'mixed/moderate' captures the honest verdict: a real long-run fiscal case, but only if the upfront capital is sustainably financed and delivery is achieved — both genuinely uncertain.
Inequality & fair shares — Helps
moderate · moderate confidence
More social homes at below-market rents would directly reduce housing costs for lower-income households, narrowing the gap between the richest and the rest. The main caveat is whether 150,000 homes a year can actually be built — delivery at that scale has never been achieved in modern times.
The evidence
- The policy commits to 150,000 new social homes per year at social rents and ending Right to Buy. — greenparty.org.uk (manifesto) — “Provide 150,000 new social homes a year at social rents and end the 'right to buy' to ensure homes remain community assets.”
- Social rented homes have rents set at around 50% of market rents, making them the most affordable tenure. — commonslibrary.parliament.uk (government) — “Social rented homes, with rents typically set at around 50% of market rents, are the most affordable housing tenure”
- The affordable housing stock has fallen from 5.5 million in the 1970s to 4.1 million today despite population growth. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “The affordable housing stock has fallen from a peak of 5.5 million in the 1970s to 4.1 million today, despite population growth”
- Nearly one million more social homes have been sold under Right to Buy than have been built, depleting the stock available to lower-income households. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “Since its inception, nearly one million more social homes have been sold than have been built”
- At the current build rate of around 12,198 social homes per year, existing waiting lists would take over a century to clear. — property118.com (media) — “At the current rate of around 12,198 social homes built per year, it would take approximately 119 years to clear these waiting lists”
- 1.6 million households have an unmet housing need best met through social renting. — commonslibrary.parliament.uk (government) — “1.6 million households have an unmet housing need that would be best met through social renting”
- Analysts assess that RTB has worsened Britain's affordable housing shortage and often benefited private landlords more than low-income families. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “RTB has been a "divisive policy." While it has boosted homeownership for some, it has "worsened Britain's affordable housing shortage" and often benefited private landlords more than low-income families”
- Ending RTB could save around 10,100 council-owned social homes each year from leaving the social sector. — england.shelter.org.uk (media) — “Shelter estimating it could save 10,100 council-owned social homes each year”
- Scaling construction to 150,000 social homes per year faces serious barriers including labour shortages and planning complexity. — policyexchange.org.uk (media) — “Labour shortages in the construction industry and the high costs of land and planning permission are also significant barriers to large-scale development”
- The IFS notes England has low housing supply elasticity, meaning supply is hard to scale rapidly. — vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com (media) — “England has a low housing supply elasticity compared to other countries, meaning supply is not very responsive to price changes”
Biggest unknown: Whether the construction and funding system can actually deliver 150,000 social homes per year, given labour shortages, planning constraints, and the fact that England currently builds only around 12,000 social homes annually.
Our reading: Social housing at ~50% of market rent is a direct transfer of housing cost relief to lower-income households. Expanding the social rented sector at scale would reduce the share of income lower-income households spend on housing, narrowing a key dimension of the gap between richest and rest — both in income terms (more disposable income) and in wealth terms (less money flowing upward to private landlords). The stock depletion caused by Right to Buy has disproportionately harmed lower-income households: analysts assess that sold homes often ended up in private hands at higher rents, benefiting wealthier landlords rather than the low-income families the policy was meant to serve. Ending RTB would halt this ongoing widening effect on the distribution of housing assets. Absent this policy, the trajectory is clear: unmet social housing need is massive (1.6 million households), the current build rate of ~12,000/year is negligible against that need, and the stock continues to erode. The marginal gain from this policy is therefore genuinely additional. The inequality-narrowing logic is direct and well-supported, but magnitude is conditional on delivery. The jump from ~12,000 to 150,000 social homes per year would represent more than a tenfold increase in a sector already facing labour shortages and planning barriers. If only a fraction is delivered, the effect is proportionally smaller. Confidence is moderate rather than high, and the time horizon is long-term: meaningful inequality effects require sustained delivery over years. The RTB abolition component is more immediately deliverable and has a clear, if smaller, protective effect on the existing stock. On balance, the evidence leans clearly toward improvement on O14 — the mechanism is direct and the beneficiaries are definitionally lower-income — but magnitude depends heavily on delivery.