Fund 100,000 Apprenticeships by Curbing Poor University Degrees
Conservative · what the evidence says
An independent, source-checked look at Conservative’s policy “Fund 100,000 Apprenticeships by Curbing Poor University Degrees” — what it would actually do across the things that affect your life. Every claim below quotes the source behind it. How this works.
Prosperity & living standards — Mixed picture
minor · low confidence
This policy aims to shift 100,000 young people from lower-value university courses into apprenticeships, which could improve skills supply and productivity — but serious doubts about funding, employer buy-in, and whether students would actually move into apprenticeships make the net effect on living standards uncertain and likely small. The evidence points to real upsides and real risks, not a clear win.
The evidence
- The policy commits to funding 100,000 high-quality apprenticeships by closing university courses with high dropout rates or poor graduate outcomes. — conservatives.com (manifesto) — “fund 100,000 high-quality apprenticeships for young people by changing the law to close university courses with high dropout rates or poor graduate outcomes”
- Savings of an estimated £910 million from closing underperforming degrees are expected to fund the apprenticeship expansion. — theguardian.com (media) — “proposed to be funded by savings of an estimated £910 million from closing underperforming university degrees”
- Apprenticeship starts in England have already fallen sharply, from 500,000 in 2015 to 337,000 in 2022-23. — theguardian.com (media) — “apprenticeship starts in England fell from 500,000 in 2015 to 337,000 in 2022-23”
- The current apprenticeship completion rate is 54.6%, below the government's own target of 67%, suggesting quality problems exist in the existing system. — theboar.org (media) — “current apprenticeship completion rate in England is 54.6%, below the government's target of 67%”
- An undergraduate degree is estimated to be worth on average £280,000 for men and £190,000 for women over a lifetime compared to not going to university. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “an undergraduate degree is still estimated to be worth, on average, £280,000 for men and £190,000 for women (net of tax and loan repayments) over a lifetime, compared to not going to university”
- The IFS questions whether the £910m savings figure is genuinely achievable and sufficient to fund the proposed expansion. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “IFS questions whether the estimated £910 million in savings from closing university courses is genuinely achievable and sufficient to fund the proposed apprenticeship expansion”
- Students displaced from closed courses may simply move to other higher education courses rather than into apprenticeships, undermining the policy's mechanism. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “students might instead switch to other higher education courses, or universities might create new degrees to replace those cut”
- Delivering a large increase in apprenticeships requires convincing employers to offer opportunities, and employer investment in training is already in decline in the UK. — timeshighereducation.com (media) — “investment by businesses in employee training is already in decline in the UK”
- Degree apprenticeships currently favour older workers and are often used to upskill existing staff, raising doubts that new places would reach young people as intended. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “degree apprenticeships tend to be undertaken by older apprentices and are often used by firms to upskill existing staff, potentially at the expense of opportunities for younger, less qualified individuals”
Biggest unknown: Whether the £910m in savings is genuinely achievable and whether employers can be persuaded to create 100,000 high-quality apprenticeship places, rather than just displacing existing demand.
Our reading: On the positive side, if the policy works as stated — redirecting students from low-return degrees into high-quality apprenticeships — it could modestly improve the skills supply and productivity indicators that underpin long-term living standards. Apprenticeship numbers have fallen sharply, so there is a genuine gap to fill. On the negative side, there are three serious mechanism failures that the evidence highlights. First, the funding arithmetic is disputed by the IFS: if the £910m savings do not materialise, the apprenticeship expansion cannot be delivered. Second, displaced students are likely to migrate to other degree courses rather than into apprenticeships, as the IFS notes, meaning the assumed supply of apprentices may not appear. Third, employer demand is the binding constraint: Australian evidence and UK trends show employer-led apprenticeship supply is sensitive to incentives and is already declining — simply creating a policy aspiration does not create employer places. Against this, closing courses defined as poor-value could have real upside if the mechanism fires: removing low-return pathways and channelling students into higher-productivity vocational routes would, over time, improve labour productivity and economic mobility. But the lifetime degree premium evidence (£280,000 for men) cautions against assuming the displaced courses are straightforwardly low-value. The balance of independent analyst opinion (IFS, Resolution Foundation) is that delivery risks are substantial and the net productivity gain is uncertain. 'Mixed/minor' reflects a credible but contested upside mechanism offset by well-evidenced delivery risks, with low confidence because the funding assumption and employer-supply constraint are both unresolved.
Good work & fair pay — Mixed picture
moderate · low confidence
This policy would create 100,000 apprenticeships for young people, which could improve job quality and security for those who take them up — but funding assumptions are disputed, completion rates are already low, and the new places may not reach the most disadvantaged workers. The net effect on fair pay and good work is genuinely uncertain, with real upsides and real risks.
The evidence
- The policy pledges to fund 100,000 high-quality apprenticeships for young people by closing university courses with poor outcomes. — conservatives.com (manifesto) — “fund 100,000 high-quality apprenticeships for young people by changing the law to close university courses with high dropout rates or poor graduate outcomes”
- Approximately 13% of university courses — one in eight degree places — are targeted for closure. — timeshighereducation.com (media) — “aims to close approximately 13% of university courses, or one in eight degree places, based on criteria like dropout rates, job progression, and future earnings potential”
- Apprenticeship starts in England have already fallen sharply, from 500,000 in 2015 to 337,000 in 2022-23. — theguardian.com (media) — “apprenticeship starts in England fell from 500,000 in 2015 to 337,000 in 2022-23”
- The current apprenticeship completion rate in England is 54.6%, below the government's target of 67%. — theboar.org (media) — “current apprenticeship completion rate in England is 54.6%, below the government's target of 67%”
- Apprenticeships have shifted towards older workers and higher-level qualifications, not young entry-level workers. — feweek.co.uk (media) — “Apprenticeships have seen a trend towards older workers and higher-level qualifications”
- In 2021-22, only 2,480 of 37,800 degree apprenticeship starters were aged 18-24. — theboar.org (media) — “only 2,480 of 37,800 degree apprenticeship starters were 18-24 year olds”
- Degree apprenticeships show lower participation from free-school-meal-eligible students (5%) compared to university students (17%). — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “degree apprenticeships currently show lower participation from students eligible for free school meals (5%) compared to university students (17%)”
- The IFS questions whether the estimated £910 million in savings is genuinely achievable and sufficient to fund the proposed apprenticeship expansion. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “IFS questions whether the estimated £910 million in savings from closing university courses is genuinely achievable and sufficient to fund the proposed apprenticeship expansion”
- Delivering a substantial increase in apprenticeships while maintaining quality requires convincing employers to offer new opportunities, which is uncertain. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “Delivering a substantial increase in apprenticeships while maintaining quality will require convincing employers to offer these new opportunities”
- Students displaced from closed courses may simply switch to other degrees rather than enter apprenticeships, undermining the policy's effect. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “students might instead switch to other higher education courses, or universities might create new degrees to replace those cut”
- Degree apprenticeships are often used by firms to upskill existing staff, potentially at the expense of opportunities for younger, less-qualified individuals. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “degree apprenticeships tend to be undertaken by older apprentices and are often used by firms to upskill existing staff, potentially at the expense of opportunities for younger, less qualified individuals”
Biggest unknown: Whether the £910 million in savings from closing university courses will actually materialise, and whether employers will offer enough high-quality placements to absorb redirected young people.
Our reading: The policy has a credible upside for O4: 100,000 additional high-quality apprenticeships could meaningfully improve job quality, security, and earnings for young people who would otherwise face poor labour market outcomes or end up in low-value degree programmes. Apprenticeships, especially at higher levels, can deliver real wage premiums and vocational security. However, several structural problems undercut confidence in that upside materialising at scale. First, the funding mechanism is contested — the IFS doubts the £910m savings figure is achievable. Without that funding, the supply of new places cannot be guaranteed. Second, the existing apprenticeship system has structural weaknesses: starts have fallen sharply since 2015, completion rates sit at only 54.6%, and the demographic trend is towards older, already-employed workers rather than young entrants. Third, employer buy-in is uncertain, and Australian evidence suggests employer participation falls when financial incentives are removed. Fourth, displaced university students may simply migrate to other degrees rather than into apprenticeships, meaning the numerator (new apprenticeship starters) may not rise as projected. Fifth, and critically for distributional fairness, the workers most likely to benefit — disadvantaged young people — are currently underrepresented in degree apprenticeships, and the Resolution Foundation and Health Foundation both flag that higher-level apprenticeships tend to bypass this group. The net verdict is mixed: there is a genuine upside pathway (more structured vocational routes, better pay for those who complete), and a genuine downside risk (disruption to current degree students, funding shortfall, quality dilution if employer demand is weak). Confidence is low because the key delivery parameters — savings realisation, employer uptake, and demographic targeting — are all disputed by credible institutional sources.
Education & opportunity — Mixed picture
moderate · moderate confidence
This policy would fund 100,000 new apprenticeships while closing roughly one in eight university courses deemed poor value — good for skills breadth, but real risks that disadvantaged young people miss out and savings may not materialise as planned.
The evidence
- The policy would fund 100,000 high-quality apprenticeships by closing university courses with high dropout rates or poor graduate outcomes. — conservatives.com (manifesto) — “fund 100,000 high-quality apprenticeships for young people by changing the law to close university courses with high dropout rates or poor graduate outcomes”
- The policy targets closure of approximately 13% of university courses. — timeshighereducation.com (media) — “aims to close approximately 13% of university courses, or one in eight degree places”
- Apprenticeship starts in England have already fallen sharply, from 500,000 in 2015 to 337,000 in 2022-23. — theguardian.com (media) — “apprenticeship starts in England fell from 500,000 in 2015 to 337,000 in 2022-23”
- The current apprenticeship completion rate is only 54.6%, well below the government's own target of 67%. — theboar.org (media) — “current apprenticeship completion rate in England is 54.6%, below the government's target of 67%”
- Apprenticeships have already shifted towards older workers and higher-level qualifications, not younger or less qualified people. — feweek.co.uk (media) — “Apprenticeships have seen a trend towards older workers and higher-level qualifications”
- Degree apprenticeships show much lower participation from disadvantaged students: only 5% eligible for free school meals versus 17% at university. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “degree apprenticeships currently show lower participation from students eligible for free school meals (5%) compared to university students (17%)”
- A degree is still estimated to be worth on average £280,000 for men and £190,000 for women over a lifetime compared to not going to university. — resolutionfoundation.org (institutional) — “an undergraduate degree is still estimated to be worth, on average, £280,000 for men and £190,000 for women (net of tax and loan repayments) over a lifetime”
- The IFS questions whether the estimated £910m savings from closing university courses are genuinely achievable and sufficient to fund the apprenticeship expansion. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “IFS questions whether the estimated £910 million in savings from closing university courses is genuinely achievable and sufficient to fund the proposed apprenticeship expansion”
- Students whose courses are closed may simply switch to other HE courses rather than into apprenticeships, undermining the policy's logic. — ifs.org.uk (institutional) — “students might instead switch to other higher education courses, or universities might create new degrees to replace those cut”
- Delivering more apprenticeships requires employer buy-in that cannot be assumed, especially as business investment in training is already declining. — timeshighereducation.com (media) — “investment by businesses in employee training is already in decline in the UK”
Biggest unknown: Whether the £910m in savings from closing university courses is genuinely achievable and whether employers will offer enough quality apprenticeships to meet the 100,000 target.
Our reading: The policy has a genuine upside for O7: 100,000 additional apprenticeships would expand the skills route for young people at a time when apprenticeship starts have fallen sharply from their 2015 peak. If delivered, this would meaningfully widen opportunity, particularly for those who would benefit from vocational pathways. The closure of genuinely low-quality courses could also improve average graduate outcomes and reduce the number of students taking on debt for degrees with poor returns. However, the downsides are also real and evidence-backed. First, the financing assumption — £910m saved from cutting university courses — is disputed by the IFS, and if savings fall short, the apprenticeship expansion collapses. Second, the existing apprenticeship system is already struggling: completion rates are below target, starts have declined, and the system skews towards older, better-qualified workers rather than the young people this policy targets. Adding 100,000 places on top of a system with these structural weaknesses requires significant employer buy-in that evidence from comparable systems suggests is not guaranteed. Third, closing courses defined by earnings-based metrics risks removing routes disproportionately used by disadvantaged students, while degree apprenticeships — the likely replacement pathway — currently serve fewer free-school-meals pupils than universities do. The equity effect for poorer young people is therefore ambiguous at best and potentially negative. On balance, this is a genuinely mixed verdict: there is a credible upside (more apprenticeship places, redirecting funding from poor-value degrees) matched by credible risks (funding uncertainty, employer capacity, equity effects). Neither side dominates the evidence.