Show the Working

Abolish Self-Employed National Insurance

Conservative · what the evidence says

An independent, source-checked look at Conservative’s policy “Abolish Self-Employed National Insurance” — what it would actually do across the things that affect your life. Every claim below quotes the source behind it. How this works.

Tax & the money you keep — Helps

moderate · moderate confidence

Self-employed workers earning above the profits threshold would keep significantly more of their income — around £1,350 a year for someone earning £35,000 — but the benefit only arrives fully by 2029 and lower earners below £12,570 see no gain at all.

The evidence

Biggest unknown: Whether frozen thresholds or compensating tax rises elsewhere offset the headline saving for many workers over the policy's life.

Our reading: This policy directly reduces the tax burden on self-employed workers with profits above £12,570 — a clear O11 improvement. The mechanism is concrete: a staged rate reduction from 6% to 0% over five years, with full abolition by April 2029. The IFS-cited figure of £1,350 saved for a worker on £35,000 is the most credible magnitude estimate; however, the same IFS analysis notes that frozen thresholds offset part of this gain, so the net improvement in take-home pay is real but somewhat smaller than the headline NI saving implies. The distributional picture is uneven: roughly 7% of self-employed individuals (those below £12,570 profits) see no benefit at all from Class 4 abolition. For those who do benefit, the gain is material and sustained. State pension entitlement is protected since Class 4 was never a contributory vehicle. The magnitude is rated moderate rather than major because frozen thresholds erode some of the headline gain, and the benefit is concentrated among workers with mid-to-high self-employment profits. The time horizon is long-term since full abolition only arrives in April 2029. Confidence is moderate because the key uncertainty is whether compensating fiscal measures (other tax rises or spending cuts) could offset the household benefit — the policy as stated does not address funding, and critics note the revenue cost of around £2.28bn by 2028-29.

Public finances & the next generation — Hurts

moderate · moderate confidence

Abolishing self-employed National Insurance would remove roughly £2.3 billion a year in tax revenue by 2028-29 with no identified replacement funding, worsening the public finances. The key uncertainty is whether the government would offset the cost through spending cuts or other tax rises.

The evidence

Biggest unknown: Whether and how the lost revenue (~£2.3bn/yr) would be offset — if fully funded by other measures the verdict changes, but no such plan has been specified.

Our reading: The policy removes a material and rising stream of tax revenue — OBR-certified costs for the partial measures already implemented run to ~£725m/yr, and the Labour-cited estimate for full abolition is ~£2.3bn/yr by 2028-29. NICs are the UK's second-largest tax revenue source, so removing a chunk without identified replacement funding directly worsens the debt path. No funding mechanism is stated in the policy text or in any provided evidence. The absence of a replacement means this is, on the evidence, an unfunded tax cut — which the O12 criteria explicitly treat symmetrically with unfunded spending as a sustainability risk. The magnitude is moderate: £2.3bn/yr is real but not catastrophic relative to total receipts, and the reduction is phased over several years. The time horizon is this-parliament given the stated April 2029 completion date. Confidence is moderate because the cost estimate comes from a political opponent (Labour/PA Media) rather than an independent OBR costing of the full policy — a full OBR score could revise the figure. If a credible offsetting funding plan were identified, the verdict would shift toward negligible or mixed; as it stands, the evidence supports a worsens direction.

Cost of living — Helps

moderate · moderate confidence

Abolishing self-employed National Insurance would put more money in the pockets of around 4 million self-employed workers, with a typical earner on £28,000 saving over £1,500 a year by 2029 — but the cuts phase in slowly and the lowest earners gain nothing directly.

The evidence

Biggest unknown: Whether the cost (estimated at over £2 billion a year) would be funded through public spending cuts or other tax rises that could offset the benefit for ordinary households.

Our reading: This policy directly reduces a tax on self-employed profits, which straightforwardly increases disposable income for those who pay it — a clear improvement for the cost of living of around 4 million self-employed workers. The projected savings are meaningful: over £1,500 a year for a typical earner on £28,000, and even after accounting for fiscal drag from frozen thresholds, a worker on £35,000 ends up around £1,230 better off in net terms. These are real gains for ordinary self-employed households struggling with essentials. The improvements are, however, back-loaded: the full benefit arrives only in April 2029, with staged cuts in the intervening years. The lowest-earning self-employed — those with profits below £12,570 — gain nothing directly, so the distributional benefit skews toward middle earners rather than the poorest. The big unresolved question is fiscal: the policy is projected to cost over £2 billion a year with no identified funding source. If it is financed through cuts to public services or benefits, or through other tax rises, some or all of the household gain could be offset elsewhere. This is a genuine and significant uncertainty, but it is a contingent risk, not a certainty — on the face of the policy itself, self-employed households see a direct income improvement. The verdict is 'improves' at moderate magnitude, long-term, with moderate confidence reflecting the real but uncertain fiscal offset risk.

Good work & fair pay — Helps

moderate · moderate confidence

Abolishing self-employed National Insurance would put more money in the pockets of around 4 million self-employed workers — roughly £1,500 a year for someone earning £28,000 — but the gains phase in slowly and the lowest earners miss out entirely. The main caveat is that if the lost tax revenue forces cuts to public services or other tax rises, some of that benefit could be clawed back.

The evidence

Biggest unknown: Whether the ~£2.3 billion annual revenue loss is offset by spending cuts or other tax rises that could reduce or reverse the net gain for workers.

Our reading: For the 4 million self-employed workers who pay Class 4 NICs, this policy delivers a clear and direct pay improvement: roughly £1,500 a year for a median earner by 2029. Because Class 4 is a pure tax on profits with no link to benefit entitlements, abolishing it translates directly into higher net earnings without touching state pension rights. The gains are real and measurable in principle, supporting the 'improves' verdict on pay levels and take-home income for the self-employed. However, three factors temper the magnitude and confidence. First, the gains phase in over five years, so the effect on living standards is long-term, not immediate. Second, frozen thresholds partially offset the NIC cut — a worker on £35,000 gains £1,350 in NIC savings but only £1,230 in net tax relief, showing fiscal drag erodes some benefit. Third, the lowest-earning self-employed (below £12,570) see no direct benefit at all, so the policy is not well-targeted at those most in need of income support. On the labour market distortion risk: IFS and Resolution Foundation warn the widened tax gap between employment and self-employment incentivises bogus or sub-optimal self-employment, which could over time reduce job quality and security for workers currently in employment. This is a real projected downside but it affects a different group (employees), not the self-employed workers who directly benefit. The funding gap (~£2.3bn/year) is the biggest systemic risk: if it forces public spending cuts that affect services workers depend on, the net welfare gain narrows. On balance, the direct, evidence-backed pay gain for 4 million workers outweighs the contested, indirect risks — hence 'improves' at moderate magnitude.